v0.5.59: item counter evidence for fears, catch up Web features to site version.

Ship OpenDota counter-stats reordering for feared items, finalize SITE_VERSION/docs for rankings/streamers/trends/matches/mechanics and draft archetypes, and ignore regenerable Web data caches.

Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>

item_fears.py

@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ from http_utils import http_json
 ITEMS_META = DATA / "items_meta.json"
 HERO_ABILITIES = DATA / "hero_abilities.json"
 HERO_FEAR_OVERRIDES = DATA / "hero_fear_overrides.json"
+ITEM_COUNTER_STATS = DATA / "item_counter_stats.json"
 OUT = DATA / "hero_item_fears.json"
 ABILITIES_URL = (
     "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/odota/dotaconstants/master/build/abilities.json"
@@ -243,12 +244,51 @@ def load_hero_overrides() -> dict[str, dict]:
     return {str(k): v for k, v in heroes.items() if isinstance(v, dict)}
 
 
+def load_counter_stats() -> tuple[dict, dict[str, dict[str, dict]]]:
+    """Load optional adjusted OpenDota evidence indexed by hero and item."""
+    if not ITEM_COUNTER_STATS.is_file():
+        return {}, {}
+    try:
+        raw = load_json(ITEM_COUNTER_STATS)
+    except (OSError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+        return {}, {}
+    indexed: dict[str, dict[str, dict]] = {}
+    for hero_key, rows in (raw.get("by_hero") or {}).items():
+        if not isinstance(rows, list):
+            continue
+        indexed[str(hero_key)] = {
+            str(row["item"]): row
+            for row in rows
+            if isinstance(row, dict) and row.get("item")
+        }
+    return dict(raw.get("meta") or {}), indexed
+
+
+def evidence_adjustment(evidence: dict | None) -> int:
+    """Return a deliberately small corroboration bonus/penalty."""
+    if not evidence:
+        return 0
+    games = int(evidence.get("games") or 0)
+    if games < 100:
+        return 0
+    buy_lift_pp = float(evidence.get("buy_lift") or 0) * 100
+    win_delta_pp = float(evidence.get("win_delta") or 0) * 100
+    # Mixed signs are inconclusive. Requiring agreement avoids promoting generic
+    # expensive winner items based on conditional win rate alone.
+    if buy_lift_pp * win_delta_pp <= 0:
+        return 0
+    raw = 0.6 * buy_lift_pp + 0.4 * win_delta_pp
+    reliability = min(1.0, games / 500)
+    return round(max(-6.0, min(6.0, raw)) * reliability)
+
+
 def fears_for_hero(
     hero_key: str,
     summary: dict,
     by_tag: dict[str, list[dict]],
     items_by_key: dict[str, dict],
     overrides: dict[str, dict],
+    counter_stats: dict[str, dict[str, dict]],
     top_n: int,
 ) -> list[dict]:
     need = needed_tags(summary)
@@ -304,12 +344,21 @@ def fears_for_hero(
 
     ranked = []
     for row in acc.values():
+        evidence = (counter_stats.get(hero_key) or {}).get(row["item"]["key"])
         sc, entry = score_item(
             row["item"],
             row["matched"],
             row["reasons"],
-            bonus=int(row.get("bonus") or 0),
+            bonus=int(row.get("bonus") or 0) + evidence_adjustment(evidence),
         )
+        if evidence:
+            entry["stats"] = {
+                "games": int(evidence.get("games") or 0),
+                "purchase_rate": float(evidence.get("buy_rate") or 0),
+                "win_rate": float(evidence.get("win_rate") or 0),
+                "purchase_lift": float(evidence.get("buy_lift") or 0),
+                "win_delta": float(evidence.get("win_delta") or 0),
+            }
         ranked.append((sc, entry))
     ranked.sort(key=lambda t: (-t[0], t[1]["item"]))
 
@@ -333,6 +382,7 @@ def main() -> None:
 
     items_meta = load_json(ITEMS_META)
     abilities_db = load_json(HERO_ABILITIES)
+    counter_meta, counter_stats = load_counter_stats()
     items = items_meta.get("items") or {}
     items_by_key = index_items_by_key(items)
     overrides = load_hero_overrides()
@@ -350,7 +400,7 @@ def main() -> None:
         tags = list(h.get("tags") or [])
         summary = hero_summary(key, abilities_db, tags, unit_target_keys)
         by_hero[key] = fears_for_hero(
-            key, summary, by_tag, items_by_key, overrides, args.top
+            key, summary, by_tag, items_by_key, overrides, counter_stats, args.top
         )
 
     items_out = {
@@ -369,6 +419,17 @@ def main() -> None:
             "top_n": args.top,
             "heroes": len(by_hero),
             "overrides": str(HERO_FEAR_OVERRIDES.relative_to(DATA.parent)).replace("\\", "/"),
+            "counter_stats": (
+                {
+                    "path": str(ITEM_COUNTER_STATS.relative_to(DATA.parent)).replace("\\", "/"),
+                    "source": counter_meta.get("source"),
+                    "fetched_at": counter_meta.get("fetched_at"),
+                    "method": counter_meta.get("method"),
+                    "caveat": counter_meta.get("caveat"),
+                }
+                if counter_meta
+                else None
+            ),
         },
         "by_hero": by_hero,
         "items": items_out,